Finding recurring delivery issues in lost-customer cohorts

Delivery trouble can damage a first purchase, but a low repeat rate alone does not show that delivery caused it. Combine cohort and fulfilment data to find a recurring pattern.

Define the group

Choose customers whose first order fell in the same period and allow each the same follow-up time. Group customers by first-order period and compare repeat purchases across later intervals.

Mark first orders with delayed dispatch, missed estimate, failed delivery or customer contact about tracking, where those facts are recorded reliably. Do not infer a delay solely from a late carrier scan.

Compare repeat purchasing among affected and unaffected customers with similar products, regions and acquisition channels. Look for a concentration by carrier, warehouse or product.

Then read a sample of order and support histories to see whether the customer actually experienced the reported problem.

Diagnosing Recurring Delivery Issues in Lost Customer Cohorts

Fix what the evidence identifies

If dispatch is slow, change the pick-and-pack process or published handling time. If carrier estimates are unreliable, revise the promise and the escalation path.

The ACCC can require businesses to back up claims they make about their products or services.

Track the delivery issue rate after the fix and later cohort behaviour separately. Improvement in one does not automatically prove improvement in the other.